Alternative econometric models for the analysis of UK tourism demand
Автор:Maria De Mello Год: 2014 Издание:LAP Lambert Academic Publishing Страниц: 432 ISBN: 9783659630309 In the context of the UK tourism demand for France, Spain and Portugal in 1969-1997, the objective of this book is to demonstrate that consistent estimates and reliable forecasts can be obtained from empirical models based on the principles of economic theory, and specified and rigorously tested within the rules of sound econometric methodology. The alternative models estimated include error-correction autoregressive distributed lag models (ARDL), static and dynamic almost ideal demand systems (AIDS) and cointegrated vector autoregressive models (VAR). The main findings that emerge from this study are the following. The diagnostic tests applied to the dynamic ARDL models provide sufficient evidence to classify them as statistically robust, structurally stable and well-defined specifications. The evidence obtained for the AIDS and VAR systems indicates them as data-coherent and theoretically-consistent models, complying with the utility maximisation hypotheses. The similarity of the...
